U.S.–China Trade Tensions Rise Again: How Should Businesses Prepare for a Possible Tariff War?

As the U.S.–China tariff truce is set to expire on November 10, both sides are stepping up pressure ahead of the upcoming APEC Summit.

The tone has shifted from cautious engagement to aggressive bargaining, and the question now dominating headlines is:

Will the trade war reignite?

� China’s Moves: Rare Earth Controls and Reciprocal Measures

Beijing has rolled out a series of strong countermeasures to strengthen its bargaining position:

* Upgraded rare earth export controls – Five new medium and heavy rare earths have been added to China’s export control list. Given China’s dominance in refining and separation capacity, this move is viewed as a major strategic lever against Washington.

* Pressure on U.S. agriculture – China has continued to suspend soybean imports from the U.S., directly targeting agricultural communities that strongly support Donald Trump.

* Tit-for-tat actions – The Ministry of Transport announced port fees on vessels owned by U.S. companies and individuals, mirroring Washington’s tariff on Chinese vessels. Meanwhile, China’s market regulator launched an antitrust probe into Qualcomm’s merger case — intertwining commerce and geopolitics.

� U.S. Response: Multi-Sector Pressure and Political Signaling

The U.S. has also escalated its countermeasures:

* Expanded restrictions – Plans to impose new fees on Chinese vessels and potentially restrict Chinese airlines from flying through Russian airspace.

* Technology containment – Broader export restrictions on high-end software and semiconductor-related tools to limit Chinese access.

* Political “bargaining” – President Trump hinted he may use tariffs as leverage, stating: “We import a lot from China — maybe we should stop doing that.”

⚠️ The Risk of a Renewed Trade War

Analysts warn that if the truce fails, 100% additional tariffs and expanded export controls on critical software could severely disrupt global supply chains.

1. Traditional Manufacturing Under Pressure

Sectors like home appliances, textiles, and machinery could see costs double overnight.

With profit margins averaging only 15–30%, manufacturers face a “lose-money-on-every-order” dilemma if they absorb the costs — or risk losing U.S. market share to Southeast Asian competitors if they pass them on.

2. Cross-Border E-commerce in Jeopardy

The full-service “low-cost + scale” model faces direct impact. A 100% tariff would erode its key competitive advantage, leading to substantial sales declines.

3. Technology Bottlenecks

Restrictions on AI, industrial design, and semiconductor-related software could stall innovation in Chinese manufacturing. While this may accelerate domestic software substitution, it also means a lose–lose scenario for both U.S. and Chinese tech industries.

� How Businesses Are Adapting

With less than a month of buffer time, companies are racing to adjust their operations:

* Short-term measures:

  * Stock up via overseas warehouses to secure inventory;

  * Re-negotiate prices and delivery terms for existing orders.

* Medium to long-term strategies:

  * Supply chain diversification: Shift parts of production to Southeast Asia or Mexico, building a “China R&D + overseas manufacturing + global distribution” model;

  * Market diversification: Explore emerging markets in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa to reduce U.S. dependency;

  * Technology & brand upgrading: Strengthen innovation and brand value to offset tariff risks.

� Negotiation Leverage and Possible Outcomes

Analysts such as Capital Economics suggest that China’s rare earth controls are part of a medium-term strategic move, not merely a tactical trade decision.

Still, both sides have room to de-escalate:

* China’s potential concession: Resuming U.S. soybean imports as a “low-cost goodwill gesture.”

* U.S. possible signal: Lowering tariffs on products linked to the opioid crisis as a low-political-cost gesture.

Bottom line: Despite heightened tensions, the tariff truce could still be extended.

Both sides understand that a hard economic decoupling would be damaging to all. The APEC Summit is expected to focus on export controls, service sector access, and trade balance issues — the key battlegrounds shaping the global trade landscape.

� Implications for Logistics and Supply Chain Players

For companies involved in U.S.–China sea and air freight, this negotiation phase is not just a policy event — it’s a turning point for strategic planning.

* Flexible logistics networks: Develop multi-route shipping and warehousing capabilities across China, Southeast Asia, and Europe.

* Compliance and customs expertise: In a high-tariff environment, accurate documentation and customs clearance become critical risk-control tools.

* Collaborative resilience: Strengthen coordination across both ends of the supply chain to ensure continuous delivery amid policy fluctuations.

� Conclusion: Finding Certainty in Uncertainty

Regardless of whether the trade war reignites, global supply chain diversification is now irreversible.

Enterprises with resilient operations, flexible logistics, and global partnerships will not only survive the turbulence but also find new growth opportunities in the shifting trade landscape.

� Do you believe moving part of your production or warehousing to Southeast Asia is a sustainable long-term strategy to mitigate tariff risks?

Share your thoughts with us.

Goodship56 – Specialized in China–U.S. sea and air freight services. We offer DDP door-to-door delivery, customs clearance, and global logistics solutions.

� Learn more: [www.goodship56.com]