Surge in European Shipping Capacity Ahead of Chinese New Year – What You Need to Know

Why the Surge in Shipping Capacity?

As the 2026 Chinese New Year draws closer, shipping capacity on the Asia-Europe trade lanes is experiencing a massive surge, with capacity levels expected to jump by 50% compared to normal historical trends. This unprecedented increase comes as cargo owners are choosing to ship goods earlier to build up stockpiles before the holiday rush, ensuring smoother operations and mitigating potential delays caused by the extended transit times due to African detours.

What Do the Numbers Tell Us?

According to Sea-Intelligence’s latest analysis in the Sunday Spotlight (Issue #746), we’re seeing a significant shift in how shipping capacity is being deployed across global trade routes. Normally, the six weeks leading up to the Chinese New Year would see a steady rise in shipping capacity, but 2026 is set to break all historical records.

The reasons behind this early shipment wave are clear. Cargo owners are preemptively sending goods ahead of the Chinese New Year to avoid extended delivery times on the Asia-Europe routes, which are currently experiencing delays due to longer detours around Africa. This adjustment is part of a broader structural shift in the global shipping network as companies aim to avoid the disruptions of traditional holiday peaks.

What Do the Numbers Tell Us?

For 2026, projections indicate a dramatic increase in capacity compared to historical averages. In previous years (2015-2019), we saw only a modest rise of around 10% leading up to Chinese New Year. However, this year, expected capacity will surge by as much as four times the usual growth.

For instance, the baseline capacity for 2026 on the Asia-Europe route is projected at 282,947 TEUs (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units). By the sixth week before the Chinese New Year, capacity is expected to hit 421,825 TEUs – a net increase of 138,878 TEUs, or 49.1% higher than the baseline. Even accounting for potential delays, the capacity index will remain significantly above the typical historical levels, continuing to reflect the heightened demand.

Impact on Specific Trade Routes

Notably, the Mediterranean and Asia-Mediterranean routes are seeing the most dramatic shifts, with capacity surging by a staggering 62% over five weeks, reaching 278,172 TEUs. This significant uptick demonstrates how the increased shipping capacity is not just isolated to Europe but is affecting multiple regions across the globe.

On the transpacific front, we see more varied trends. The Asia-West Coast US route has seen major fluctuations with capacity surges in the later weeks, while the Asia-East Coast US route remains stable, with capacity levels running 25% higher than the historical baseline.

Conclusion

The global shipping landscape is experiencing a fundamental shift, driven by the rush to ship goods ahead of the 2026 Chinese New Year. This preemptive move aims to avoid the delays caused by extended transport times and to ensure that inventories remain stocked through the holiday period. For businesses, this surge in capacity could present both opportunities and challenges in terms of cost, scheduling, and operational efficiency.

As we move into 2026, businesses should prepare for higher-than-usual shipping volumes and be proactive in securing space early to avoid potential delays. This shift in shipping trends reflects broader structural changes in the freight network, and keeping an eye on these patterns will be crucial for effective logistics planning in the year ahead.