RMB Nears 7: How Businesses Should Respond

Recently, the Chinese Renminbi (RMB) has been strengthening against the US dollar. On December 24, 2025, offshore RMB briefly reached 7.0013, approaching the psychological 7.0 level, while onshore RMB also strengthened to 7.0125. So far this year, RMB has appreciated by 4.57%, while the US dollar index has declined by 9.78%. Other major currencies like the euro and the pound have also strengthened against the dollar.

For cross-border traders, exporters, and logistics companies, this RMB appreciation affects cost structures, profit margins, currency risk management, and supply chain logistics.

Drivers Behind RMB Appreciation

External Factors: Weaker Dollar and Capital Return

In 2025, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times, weakening the US dollar and easing global liquidity. Capital is flowing back to non-US markets, giving RMB upward momentum as a major Asian reserve currency.

Internal Factors: Trade Surplus and Economic Improvement

• Expanding Trade Surplus: From January to November 2025, China's trade surplus exceeded $1 trillion. Abundant foreign exchange supply and concentrated settlement by exporters supported RMB appreciation.
• Improved Economic Data: Stimulative consumption policies and strong year-end export performance boost market confidence in RMB.

Goodship56 Note: Exporters should monitor RMB appreciation impacts on profit margins and arrange foreign exchange settlements carefully to avoid financial risk.

Market and Logistics Impacts of RMB Appreciation

Beneficial Areas

• Study Abroad & Travel: Lower currency exchange costs. Exchanging $100,000 could save approximately ¥17,000 compared to mid-year rates.
• Importers: Reduced cost of raw materials improves profit margins and international competitiveness.
• Cross-Border Logistics & Procurement: RMB appreciation lowers import transportation costs and overseas procurement expenditures, allowing better warehouse layout and more frequent replenishment, enhancing supply chain efficiency.

Pressure Areas

• Exporters: Higher international prices may reduce profit margins, requiring adjustments in logistics and pricing strategies.
• USD Asset Investors: RMB appreciation may reduce the RMB value of USD deposits or bonds.
• Logistics Cost Volatility: Exporters must monitor USD-denominated shipping and warehousing costs. RMB appreciation lowers local costs, but reduced trade volume may raise per-unit logistics costs.

Goodship56 Note: Businesses can leverage Goodship56’s multi-channel logistics, overseas warehouses, and door-to-door shipping services to optimize cross-border costs and improve fulfillment efficiency.

RMB Exchange Rate Outlook

In the short term, the probability of RMB breaking 7 is high, but whether it stabilizes above 7.0 depends on USD trends, central parity adjustments, and domestic growth policies. Medium- to long-term trends remain uncertain, so companies should monitor policies and adjust cash flow, forex management, and logistics strategies accordingly.

Expert Opinions & Business Recommendations

• Zhao Qingming, Deputy Director of Currency Research Institute: RMB strengthening is driven by a weakening USD and expanding trade surplus; trend likely to continue next year.
• Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst at Oriental Jincheng: Focus on USD trends, RMB central parity adjustments, and domestic growth policies.
• CITIC Securities: Once RMB appreciation expectations form, overseas capital inflows create positive feedback, supporting RMB’s intrinsic value reassessment.

Investment & Logistics Strategies

• Exporters: Monitor profit margin changes, manage forex settlements, and optimize logistics and overseas warehouse layout.
• Importers: Use RMB appreciation to reduce procurement and transport costs, improving supply chain efficiency.
• Cross-border logistics: Track USD-denominated shipping and storage costs, plan shipments, and reduce cost volatility risks.
• Policy & market dynamics: Prepare cash flow and forex reserves to ensure stable logistics and finance operations.

Goodship56 Note: Businesses can combine RMB exchange rate trends with overseas warehouse, cross-border express, and multi-port shipping solutions to optimize logistics costs and hedge currency risks.

Conclusion

RMB appreciation is already underway, with a high probability of breaking 7 in the short term, while medium- to long-term trends remain uncertain. Cross-border traders, exporters, and logistics companies should closely monitor markets, policies, and USD movements. Using Goodship56’s global logistics, overseas warehouse, and cross-border shipping services, companies can optimize supply chains, reduce logistics costs, and seize market opportunities amid RMB fluctuations.