Rate Increase Alert: US West Coast to USD 3,000, US East Coast to USD 3,900?

Despite the short-term stability, carriers have officially announced a new round of rate increases effective January 1, 2026. The final execution level and duration of these increases will depend heavily on actual cargo volumes and carriers’ capacity management strategies.

Announced Target Rates for January 2026

• US West Coast: Targeting approximately USD 3,000 per 40HQ
• US East Coast: Targeting approximately USD 3,900 per 40HQ

Current Market Rate Overview

• US East Coast: USD 2,850–3,050 per 40HQ
• Europe: USD 2,400–2,600 per 40HQ

While European routes have not yet released official increase notices, market expectations suggest a rise of around USD 500, notably lower than the roughly USD 900 increase being guided on US-bound lanes.

Meanwhile, Maersk’s online pricing for the US West Coast is currently showing levels of USD 1,700–1,800. However, bookings are subject to a USD 200 cancellation fee. How Maersk adjusts its January pricing will likely play a decisive role in shaping broader market trends.

Key Factors Influencing the Next Market Phase

Large freight forwarders indicate that upcoming rate movements will primarily depend on three critical factors:

1. Carriers’ capacity control measures, including blank sailings and vessel deployment
2. Actual shipment demand from year-end through the pre–Chinese New Year period
3. Whether GRI (General Rate Increase) announcements transition from guidance into effective implementation

Pre- and Post–Chinese New Year Outlook

Based on current market signals, freight rates are expected to maintain a moderate upward trend ahead of Chinese New Year. As carriers gradually release pricing adjustments and GRI-related surcharges for January, the overall market cost base may rise in a stepwise manner.

Due to the proximity of Chinese New Year, mid-January increases are likely to be applied in the form of peak season–style surcharges rather than long-term base rate hikes. Industry estimates suggest that rates may begin to soften again in late January, as carriers look to accumulate cargo volumes for post-holiday sailings.

What Shippers Should Consider

For exporters and importers shipping to the US and Europe, proactive planning is essential. Early space booking, close monitoring of carrier announcements, and working with an experienced logistics partner can help mitigate cost volatility during this transitional period.

GoodShip56 continuously monitors carrier capacity strategies, rate adjustments, and GRI execution across major trade lanes. We provide real-time market insights and customized shipping solutions to help our clients navigate upcoming rate changes with confidence.

Contact GoodShip56 today to secure competitive space and pricing for your January 2026 shipments.