Christmas Shipping Rates Drop Instead? Goodship Analyzes the Logic Behind the Container Shipping Rate Hike "One-Day Show"

As Christmas approaches, what should have been a peak season sprint for the shipping industry has unfolded an unexpected reversal of shipping rates. On December 1st, the rate hike plan for US routes originally scheduled by shipping companies collapsed only half a day after its launch, as an Asian member of a maritime alliance took the lead in "breaking ranks" — the freight rate for US West Coast (USWC) dropped back to $1,450 per FEU, while US East Coast (USEC) remained at $2,300. The industry-expected "one-and-a-half-day rally" came to an abrupt end. As a platform focusing on shipping information and cargo space matching, Goodship is here to break down the core reasons behind this failed rate hike and its practical impact on shippers and industry practitioners.

随着圣诞节的临近，航运业本应迎来旺季，但运价却出现了意想不到的逆转。12月1日，航运公司原本计划的美国航线运价上调计划在启动后仅半天就宣告失败，因为一个海运联盟的亚洲成员率先“破格”——美国西海岸（USWC）运价回落至每FEU 1450美元，而美国东海岸（USEC）则维持在每FEU 2300美元。业界期待的“一天半涨势”戛然而止。作为一个专注于航运信息和货舱匹配的平台，好船在这里剖析了这次涨价失败背后的核心原因，以及对货主和行业从业者的实际影响。

Rate Hike Plan Lacked "Confidence" from the Start, with Multiple Hidden Risks加息计划从一开始就缺乏“信心”，存在多重风险

The rate hike plan was not favored by the market from the beginning, with the core issue lying in supply-demand imbalance. According to real-time data monitoring from the Goodship platform, the average loading rate of ships on trans-Pacific routes is currently only 60%-70%, far from the saturated state needed to support a rate increase. Previously, shipping companies' ambitious price adjustment targets could be described as a "sharp jump": USWC was planned to rise from $1,450-$1,500 to $1,900-$2,050, and USEC from $2,300 to $2,700-$2,900. Such a significant increase obviously lacked market support amid weak loading rates.加息计划从一开始就不受市场欢迎，其核心问题在于供需失衡。根据Goodship平台的实时数据监测，目前跨太平洋航线船舶的平均装货率仅为60%-70%，远未达到支持装货率提高所需的饱和状态。此前，航运公司雄心勃勃的价格调整目标可以被描述为“大幅跃升”：USWC计划从1450美元至1500美元上涨至1900美元至2050美元，USEC计划从2300美元上涨至2700美元至2900美元。在装载率疲软的情况下，如此大幅的增长显然缺乏市场支持。

More importantly, there were signs of "low-price diversion" in the market before the rate hike. Data from the Goodship platform showed that USWC freight rates had dropped to $1,350 through some channels, and a large non-alliance shipping company with substantial capacity announced in advance that it would "delay the rate hike by one week." This move directly disrupted the industry's rate hike rhythm, making shippers who were already hesitant choose to wait and see or switch to low-cost cargo space.更重要的是，在加息之前，市场已经出现了“低价转移”的迹象。Goodship平台的数据显示，USWC运价已通过部分渠道降至1350美元，一家运力较大的大型非联盟航运公司提前宣布“将运价上调推迟一周”。此举直接打乱了行业涨价节奏，让本已犹豫不决的货主选择观望或转向低成本货舱。

Shipping Company's "Reverse Operation" Gains Advantage, Goodship Interprets Strategic Logic船公司“逆向经营”优势凸显，好船诠释战略逻辑

In this rate hike game, the Asian alliance member that took the lead in announcing no rate hike can be called a "smart player." Industry analysis suggests that although this move seems to "break the tacit understanding," it is actually a strategic choice based on accurate market prediction — in the case of insufficient loading rates, abandoning the rate hike can instead attract more shipper bookings, which will likely make the loading rate of this voyage better than that of competitors, thereby spreading operating costs.在这场加息博弈中，率先宣布不加息的亚洲联盟成员国可谓“聪明的玩家”。业内分析认为，此举看似“打破了默契”，但实际上是基于准确的市场预测做出的战略选择——在运力不足的情况下，放弃运价上调反而可以吸引更多的托运人预订，这可能会使该航次的运力优于竞争对手，从而分散运营成本。

This operation has also triggered a chain reaction in the industry: Goodship learned from multiple cooperative shipping companies that other members of this alliance are likely to quickly follow suit and "suspend the rate hike," while even if other alliances insist on price adjustments, they will significantly reduce the rate increase margin. For shippers, this is undoubtedly good news — US route freight rates will remain stable in the short term, and there is no need to rush to lock in high-priced cargo space. You can compare quotes from multiple shipping companies through the Goodship platform and choose a more cost-effective transportation plan.

Europe Routes "Unaffected" + Rising Voyage Cancellations, These Signals Deserve Attention

It is worth noting that unlike the "ups and downs" of US routes, Europe routes remained "unchanged" this time. Since the main operators of Europe routes are mostly ultra-large container ships, no shipping company issued a rate hike notice on December 1st. Data from the Goodship platform shows that current Europe route freight rates remain stable, with a loading rate slightly higher than that of US routes but still not reaching full capacity.

Another market signal that needs close attention is the rising voyage cancellation rate. According to Drewry's statistics and verification by the Goodship platform, from Week 49 of this year (December 1st-7th) to Week 1 of 2026 (December 29th-January 4th), global container shipping companies have canceled 56 scheduled voyages, accounting for 8% of the total departures. Among them, trans-Pacific eastbound voyages have the highest cancellation rate (48%), followed by Asia-Europe/Mediterranean (25%) and westbound trans-Atlantic voyages (27%). However, there is no need for excessive worry — 92% of the voyages are still operating as planned. Goodship has updated the list of canceled voyages in real time to help shippers avoid high-risk routes and accurately plan transportation timelines.

Goodship Warm Reminder: How to Plan Christmas Shipping More Steadily

Facing the current volatile shipping market, Goodship provides three practical suggestions for shippers and industry practitioners:

• Observe Freight Rates Without Blindness: There is insufficient momentum for US route rate hikes in the short term. You can track real-time freight rate fluctuations through the Goodship platform, compare quotes from alliance and non-alliance shipping companies, and lock in cargo space at the right time;
• Lock Cargo Space Based on Timeliness: Although the voyage cancellation rate is rising, mainstream routes are still operating stably. Sufficient transportation time should be reserved for Christmas stock preparation. Cooperate with shipping companies with "high on-time rate" through Goodship;
• Pay Attention to Route Dynamics: There are many cancellations of trans-Pacific eastbound voyages. Shippers can flexibly adjust the port of departure or choose alternative routes. The professional customer service team of Goodship can provide customized transportation solutions.